Between 2012 and 2022, 800,000 jobs per year would need to be filled, on average. About 80% of these vacancies correspond to departures at the end of their careers, the others are net job creations.
By 2022, trades in commerce and services should remain dynamic, particularly care and personal services professions. The increase in employment in high-skilled trades and the decline in employment in manual and skilled worker trades are expected to continue. Job creation in low-skilled personal assistance and other service trades (employees of the hotel and restaurant industry, guard and security agents) would compensate for the destruction of jobs for unskilled or low-skilled workers.
This summary presents the professions that will recruit by 2022. It is based on a foresight exercise , carried out in partnership with Dares and published in July 2014.
1 – Benchmarks
This foresight exercise is based on three scenarios: a rather optimistic scenario (called “target”), a second rather pessimistic (called “crisis”) and a third called “central”.
According to the scenario envisaged, between 735,000 and 830,000 positions per year would be to be filled between 2012 and 2022. Over this period, the 20 trades which would offer the greatest number of positions to be filled, presented in graph 4 below. These openings up to 2022, which are of particular interest to professional integration, result, with some exceptions, from a large number of departures at the end of their careers, to which a certain volume of job creation is added.
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Reading the graph: over the period 2012-2022, 387,000 maintenance agent positions would need to be filled, including 375,000 to replace departures at the end of their careers and 12,000 to respond to net job creation. Category C or similar administrative employee jobs in the civil service would lose 51,000 jobs between 2012 and 2022 and would have 262,000 departures at the end of their careers. In total, 211,000 positions would therefore need to be filled (262,000 – 51,000), ie a lower number than the number of departures at the end of their careers.
Source: France Stratégie-Dares projections.
Departures at the end of their career and job creation
Between 2012 and 2022, departures at the end of their careers should reach nearly 6.2 million, or about 620,000 per year on average, against around 540,000 over the period 2008-2012, and therefore 80,000 more departures per year by 2022.
The level of job creation varies depending on the scenario: from nearly 1.2 million for the “crisis” scenario to 2.1 million for the “target” scenario, passing by 1.8 million for the “scenario”. central ”, or around 177,000 per year on average.
In the end, over the period 2012-2022, by adding together departures at the end of their careers and net job creations, the annual number of positions to be filled would vary between 735,000 and 832,000. Among these positions to be filled, 78% would be consecutive departures at the end of their career.
In the analysis of the “central” scenario, certain trades will combine strong job creation and significant departures at the end of their careers, in particular personal assistance trades, which will lead to many positions to be filled. Others, on the contrary, could experience job losses, combined with more or less significant departures at the end of their careers: industrial workers, farmers or administrative employees in the public service.
Major trends emerge from this perspective exercise: the tertiarization of jobs would continue. On the one hand, trades in commerce and services should continue to develop, in particular with strong job creation in the care professions (with the exception of doctors) and personal services. On the other hand, administrative jobs in the civil service and secretarial jobs would, on the contrary, decline.
Industrial trades would stabilize: job losses would be less severe than in the past among unskilled industrial workers and there would be creations for certain skilled worker trades.
The agricultural trades would continue to decline.
Employment would continue to experience strong growth in highly skilled trades (mainly managerial trades) and, at the same time, a decrease in the weight of skilled workers and employees and relative stability in the weight of low-skilled workers and employees. A situation that is described as “polarization of employment”, however, is less marked in France than in certain countries. Job creation in low-skilled careers and other service trades (hotel and catering employees, guard and security agents) compensating for the destruction of low-skilled or unskilled worker jobs.
All of these results are qualitatively unchanged regardless of the scenario considered.
If we add to the net job creation departures at the end of their career, the positions to be filled between 2012 and 2022 appear particularly numerous for:
- home help;
- orderlies and nurses;
- executives of administrative, accounting and financial services;
- vehicle drivers;
2 – Developments and outlook for business lines and sectors
Employment opportunities will combine differently depending on the business: here is a summary of the results of the “central” scenario below.
Strong momentum in the care and assistance professions for vulnerable people
All care and support professions for vulnerable people should benefit from strong employment dynamics, with the exception of doctors, whose development depends on the numerus clausus and for whom all departures at the end of career would not be replaced by 2022 (with the destruction of just over 20,000 jobs in ten years).
Home help, nursing assistants and nurses would thus figure among the trades which would gain the most jobs by 2022, with nearly 35,000 net creations on average per year, to meet the support needs of dependency, the development of outpatient medicine, home support for the elderly, etc.
The home help profession would even be the one that would create the most jobs over the next ten years, both in terms of growth rate and a number of jobs: nearly 160,000 jobs created by 2022, i.e. an increase of 2.6% on average each year.
The number of childminders should also increase faster than that of all occupations to meet the still unmet needs for the care of young children.
There are traditionally many departures at the end of their careers in the jobs of childminders and home help, where the median age is high (45 and 47 years old, respectively, compared to 42 years old for all jobs). More than one in three people is at least 50 years old.
The positions to be filled should therefore be very important for these two professions, which have a high workforce. Between 2012 and 2022, nearly 500,000 positions would need to be filled …
The number of social action professionals, meeting the needs of the elderly, the disabled and young people in difficulty, should also be on the rise, but at a slower pace than that observed in the 1990s and 2000s. If you want to grow your field in Electrical Engineering & Electrical Automation then visit our website Burraq Engineering Solutions
Strong job creation in highly skilled trades
Between 2012 and 2022, highly skilled trades will also be among the largest net job creators and will occupy a growing share of employment. The growth of executive occupations is said to be almost twice that of all occupations: + 1.2% each year, against + 0.7%.
Among executives performing predominantly administrative functions and managers (banking and insurance executives, civil service executives, business executives, and to lesser extent executives from administrative, accounting and financial services and sales executives), the increase in the number of jobs would be combined with many departures at the end of their careers.
For public service executives, departures at the end of their careers would be all the more important in the positions to be filled as the net job creation would be lower than for most other professional families at the executive level, in a context of budgetary adjustment for public employment.
Departures at the end of their careers will be proportionally less numerous for engineers or technical executives in industry, study and research staff, and especially for computer engineers, recruiting primarily for young people. graduates. By 2022, these three professional families could provide a total of 220,000 additional jobs or a net creation rate of 2% per year on average.
By 2022, employment growth for intermediate occupations should also be sustained, close to 1% each year, much higher than that of all occupations and often associated with numerous departures at the end of their careers. Thus, among the professions that would benefit from the largest volumes of net job creation are nurses, midwives and paramedical professions (whose growth we have seen was driven by the general dynamics of the care professions), as well as technicians from administrative, accounting and financial services.
Development of skilled trades in building, transport and logistics from an environmental perspective
In the building and public works sector, architects and executives, technicians and supervisors and, to a lesser extent, skilled workers should continue to benefit from job creations by 2022. Jobs would however be created. fewer than in the previous decade due to lower economic growth.
Qualified secondary workers (plumbers, electricians, painters, carpenters, etc.), more than a third of whom are self-employed, should for their part be affected by relatively high rates of departures at the end of their careers, greater than 2, 6% on average each year (see graph 4).
By 2022, job creation in the transport and logistics trades could be limited by the increase in the price of energy. The growth in the number of positions to be filled is expected to be higher for the most skilled trades such as transport operations officers or transport managers, logistics managers and aviation flight attendants while remaining below l development expected for other management professions.
Numerous job creations for trade and hotel and catering trades
Departures at the end of their career will be limited (less than 1.9%) in certain low-skilled jobs recruiting many young people, such as:
- cashiers, salespeople and commercial attachés;
- cooks and employees in the hotel and restaurant industry;
- hairdressers and beauticians;
- cultural and sports activities.
The pace of job creation should remain relatively strong there. Only the cashier profession would not benefit from this dynamic in the retail sector but would suffer from the automation of the cash registers, remaining stable over ten years.
In total, recruitments will remain numerous due to a high turnover due to often difficult hours, salary or activity conditions.
Numerous positions for domestic workers, maintenance workers, vehicle drivers and teachers
The occupations of domestic workers and maintenance workers where the average age is high (half of the domestic workers are over 51 years old) will have a large proportion of positions to be filled to compensate for the cessation of activity.
Vehicle drivers should be in a similar configuration, with a high number of departures at the end of their careers and almost zero job creations.
The replacement of departures at the end of their careers should also generate a significant volume of vacancies among teachers (300,000), despite a rate of job creation below average, the dynamics in this profession being very dependent on public finances.
Less significant job losses than in the past among unskilled workers in industry and creations for certain skilled worker trades
Over the period 2012-2022, certain industrial professions should benefit from job creation, but in a limited number: these would mainly be intermediate professions such as technicians and supervisors in-process and maintenance industries due to increasingly sophisticated industrial and non-industrial equipment. Skilled auto repair workers are also said to be growing.
In other trades (mechanical, electrical-electronic, textile-clothing workers, graphic industry workers), employment is likely to continue to decline at a rate lower than the trends observed in the 2000s, in a context of slowing deindustrialisation.
Job losses among administrative employees and especially among farmers
The employment of secretaries or banking and insurance employees will continue to decline, while the number of accounting employees or executive secretaries is expected to remain almost stable.
With 2% of net creations per year, the number of technicians in administrative, accounting and financial services would continue to increase sharply, the expertise functions in these areas not being limited to executives alone.
In public administration, both employees and intermediate professions are expected to face downsizing in a tight budget environment. These two professional families could thus lose a total of nearly 80,000 jobs over the next ten years.
The decline in the number of soldiers, police and firefighters should be more marked between 2012 and 2022 than over the last decade.
As in the past, farmers, breeders or forestry workers will experience significant departures at the end of their careers which will not be compensated in the same way by the installation of young farmers or the hiring of new employees. Even if the rate of job losses were lower than the past trend, this occupation would be the one that would lose the most jobs by 2022.
The share of women in employment would continue to increase
In recent years, and with the exception of computer specialist positions, the place of women among executives has increased very significantly both in professions where they are already in the majority or almost (information and communication professions, administrative executives, doctors, legal professions, etc.) than in others where they remain in the minority, such as transport and logistics executives, construction and public works executives (architects in particular), sales executives or researchers, engineers and technical executives Of the industry.
Women could form 49.1% of people in employment in 2022, against 47.7% in 2012.